Grateful Dead

Lots of informed opinions, always a good discussion. Who would have thought we all would have studied the Internet CD Sales market. That's what happens when there's not a release a month. We shall see, of course. If they don't sell more than the 5200 left, however, I'm expecting at least a "well thought out essay on Rhino Sales Model Minas, you were right" ;-) Kayak Guy - I'm speaking of physical product only. That is what I am postulating is limited. Jim - your comment confused me, when you said "My guess is once it's gone, it's gone whether it's a limited release or not." Edit: I felt like I wasn't splaining myself good. If it ever gows to "gone" status, and is not made available again at any point after that, then it was a limited release. In other words, if it's gone, then it was indeed a limited release. To elaborate - Clearly it's not numbered and it's not being advertised as "only x number of copies available". What I am saying is that this release will not have multiple pressings, and is not going to be produced in mass quantity. The final number will be determined by pre-sale projections, which at this point in time looks low enough to not warrant any more produced than the 10K presently available in the system. As I said, and you're on the same page with, they most likely have not been manufactured yet, because they're still monitoring the presale. There will come a day during the presale that they have to decide on a number. That number will either be 10K, in which case the number available in the system remains what it is and has been, or they will bump it up or down by a small percentage, depending on the number sold during the presale. Once THAT number is decided on, be it 8K or 15K, that will be all they ever produce of it, and when it's gone it's gone, making it a limited release. Operational definition of "limited release": a set number of copies will be produced and will be decided on by release date (8K, 10K, 12K, 15K, etc, it's irrelevant), and no more copies will be produced once that number is sold. I think we're all getting a little tripped up on the symantics. Agree, this is not labeled "Limited Release". Disagree, it won't be available for an unlimited time. They will produce a number that is fewer than 15K for sure, and as Jim said, once it's gone it's gone. So get em while they're hot folks! I also have mine (2). The real take away here is that if I am correct, then they've "fixed" the issue in which some people do not get an opportunity to obtain a copy at retail price, and that's a positive for all of us! Everyone have an awesome weekend.

or when they put the "Only 500 left" banner up ;)

I respectfully disagree that any release with a digital download option is limited. In Dave's seaside chat he never mentions limited availability or a need to rush to grab a copy to make sure you don't miss out like he usually does for the limited releases. Dave's our buddy why wouldn't he tell us if he thought we might miss out by waiting? This box seems like the same sort of roll out as the Formerly the Warlocks box, which only recently sold out at the same price point with lots of schwag in a real wood box. This set being taken from the mutitracks requires a lot more copies to make the efforts worthwhile compared to a 2 track release, like July 78. Only the packaging and schwag of the CD and/or Vinyl copies are limited or exclusive in a mutliformat release. The details of the packaging is conspicuously missing in the description of what comes in this box, so there's still hope for the exclusive bonus DVD from the meet up at the movie ;) Once WB/Rhino solve the digital store issue they are having, more people will take the download option and not have to worry about bad disks, poor packaging, where to put it or having it stolen in the mail. To make that choice easier in the future, the CDs are using the same 16/44 mix as the ALAC download version with the "premium" HiDef mix only available as a download in FLAC. I'm not a download fan and want the CDs, but more people out there just want the digital versions all the time, and the digital downloads will never sell out as long as WB has a server online to sell them. The real problem is that server has been unavailable since shortly after Musictoday disappeared last fall, so the digital option is a non option.

I don't think July 78 was over produced.. keep in mind Music Today went bankrupt right while the drum beat of sales was kicking in.. and it was listed as 'unavailable' for months thereafter. I am sure July 78 will sell out at some point.. Spring 90 too took forever to sell out.. and the warehousing/distribution network was intact the whole time. Spring 90 was also killer, I am glad they did not artificially restrict supply on either... there are enough of us and it is that good. It doesn't look like they are going to limit the # of this release.. but they will surely decide the quantity to print in advance, which determines their unit price per CD. Whether they decide to print more at a later date remains to be seen but doing so will cost them. My guess is once it's gone, it's gone whether it's a limited release or not. I ordered mine, so it matters not to me. Oh.. and I'm sure the #s left in inventory mean nothing at this point.. they haven't even finished re-mastering and mixing yet. Or perhaps I'm full of shit.. but that's my best guess.

I ordered my one copy. I'm not seeing this release as an investment opportunity. Yes, $80 (+tax +shipping) for two shows is a bit steep. But 5 years from now I won't care.These two shows definitely wouldn't make my 'Top 100 list' of back-to-back's needing release. But I think they'll be good quality recordings. And I'll play a good quality recording of an average show as often as I'll play an average recording of a good show. Although I'll respect a different opinion there.

To keep it simple, I plan to stay subscribed and just buy one of everything for my personal consumption. I can't imagine these people putting out a pant load, ever, so even if not my fave year/lineup etc. there's always a nugget or two in there. I don't care how many they sell, if it's in FLAC/KNAC/DUCK, lossless, just plain lost, or numbered. All I care about is listening to the tunes. God bless everyone.

This release is limited, it's just a question of what the final number produced is going to be, 10K or less (a few weeks ago, Thin posted an accurate description of the sales model that's in play here). At this point, they've clearly ballparked it at 10K with the door open for more or less, depending on the results of the pre-sale. We know they ballparked it to 10K because of the number that were initially made available. The only way they would have considered producing more than 10K, is if it had exceeded 10K in sales the first couple of weeks, which it obviously did not. This is how we ended up with the Cornell numbered set, and the Cornell all music edition. Initial demand of the Cornell box set far exceeded the number produced, obviously because it sold out so quickly and everyone was pissed they missed out on it. If they had sold 10K in the first week on this RFK mini-box, they would have added more available in the system. They have not added more available at any point, so you can be sure, the pre-sale numbers are fewer than 5K at this point, as wadeocu provided a number remaining of roughly 5200. The reason it's not being marketed as a numbered / limited release is because they did not have a clear idea of the demand, and you have to commit to a number when you market something as a limited / numbered release. Why? Well, if they said it was limited to 15K, they would have to have produced 15K, and then been stuck with the remainder if it didn't come close. But if they announced it as a limited / numbered set of 15K, and then they got the huge turnout they did for Cornell, there's no way to drop back and produce more without pissing people off and losing the power of the "limited edition" sales technique that they rely on very heavily for Dave's Picks and other major box sets. They got away with producing more than the limited 15K for the Cornell box set, because they had the wiggle room to produce an "inferior" set that had no "extras" to differentiate it from the numbered / limited edition. I say "got away with", but I doubt they did. I guarantee the eBay flippers were pissed off at what happened with Cornell, and will be extremely reserved in their future purchases. Because eBay flippers are such a huge percentage of the market, I say Rhino may not have, in the long run, gotten away with it. But this is a tangent, let's talk about why it wasn't a numbered / limited release. By not numbering it and not calling it limited release, they can just sit back and gather pre-sale data to determine how many to order (this is what Thin was saying in his brilliant post a few weeks ago). So that's the real story here - they didn't know the demand for a couple of '89 shows, so they dipped their toes in the water with a 3 month pre-sale to help them figure out if they're going 10K or more (or less - read on). It's feasible that the final number may be fewer than 10K, but now you're talking about contractual commitments with manufacturers, and that sort of thing. For example, does their contract with their manufacturers who actually produce the CDs and cases and booklets require them to order x amount? If not, and if the pre-sale goes horribly bad, they may only decide to have their manufacturers produce 7 or 8K. I think the pre-sale has provided them with sufficient data to guarantee there will not be any more than 10K produced. What this release is not going to be, is a Crimson White and Indigo that is mass marketed and available for 10 years plus. We know this because it's only available on dead.net, and has no widespread distribution plan, like the Long Strange Trip CD, which can be purchased in stores. The only question at this point, is how long it will take them to sell 10K units, or possibly less. That's exactly how limited this release is. Once the initial batch is sold and gone, that's all she wrote. This is guaranteed limited release, just not numbered. I did my part, I bought one for myself and one for my uncle.

No, it's not on the other hand, it's exactly the point - July '78 was overproduced and they're stuck with overstock. They should have employed the RFK model. But I appreciate the support nonetheless. I'm just clarifying it's not a converse relationship, it's a parallel one.

On the other hand, the "July 1978" box was advertised as "limited" and is still available to buy close to a year-and-a-half later.

I just picked up Crimson, White and Indigo. Looking forward to checking it out this weekend. BTW, Real Gone is releasing Road Trips 4.4 1982 Philly Spectrum show. I have that pre-ordered from Amazon for a couple bucks more than Real Gone website, but free shipping...