Thank you Obeah for that deep inquisitive analysis! Very sound theories indeed.
When I recall the last few SeaChats, Dave mentioned a new 'era' for #54, which could as well be an era within an era. He also mentioned it was a show they had pretty much already decided on as the first release of said era. So with that in mind, there are only so many possibilities. Now for 2025 I had felt 1976 was due up as it would only be the fourth Dave's Pick release from that year, now confirmed by starting off with that pick. Thank You Dave! Dancin' in the Street.
I got a feeling that the 1983 release for #52 was bumped up in the rotation for one reason or another. I say that because I recall Dave saying that each of the four releases from 2024 would all cover different band member line~ups, which wasn't the case. DaP#49 & DaP#52 are the same musicians so to speak. That said, Dave has also made it clear in the past seachats that sometimes they improvise with the release plan, as things can change on a whim.
Driveled answer quick conclusion is,.... I think we've got a 1969 Banana Box Pick for #54 or perhaps instead a September 1970 pick with the bonus disc. As for #55 I feel an autumn 1973 show is on the wind, I say that because all but one Dave's from 1973 are spring tour. So for the last release of the year #56, I predict the first Vince era pick, maybe a show with Bruce? Anyways, If the final 2025 pick ain't that, then perhaps it's a late era Brent pick. Maybe 1988, with some early "Built To Last" tunes scattered about?

If you didn't already know, all vinyl on here is on sale, 25% off

Last few:
Caravan For Girls Who Grow Plump in the Night
Raging Slab True Death EP
Guty Cardenas Lirio Azul CD
Moody Blues Seventh Sojourn
GD 6-10-76
GD 1977 King Biscuit broadcast

This arrived today - I am waiting for the right moment to play it. I agree with Delhead - the older releases hold more fascination for me than most of what has come out in recent years. Vinyl re-issues are my favourite Dead releases these days. Especially ones released as Dicks Picks in the 90's, so there is an appreciable improvement in sound. Not that I have ever checked this out - but I assume its true.

If you search "best Dead shows" (or something akin to that) on the interwebs you will generate numerous best of lists curated by all kinds of sources. I've browsed these lists occasionally, looking for a "universally" acclaimed show that hasn't been officially released. From my observations, no data to support it, it seems that most of the "best, most desired" shows have already been released. A few haven't due to no available, releasable recordings.

So after the cream has been skimmed from the top, what Dave is dealing with is a great many good shows that are all very similar. Some transcendent moments, some not so good moments. Some good recordings, some not so good. I have seen messages on this board similar to "right street, wrong house". I think this contributes to having larger boxes, because it seems impossible to cherry pick shows anymore.

For myself, I am in the "smaller" box camp. In my opinion the Winterland boxes were perfect, in size, number of shows and a little swag. I have been a Dave Picks subscriber since the beginning but I am hesitating on continuing this year. I'm sure the 1976 show is good. But I have found myself going back to older releases. The last one I recently listened to was Dicks 12. A fabulous release that I can listen to over and over. I'm not sure the last few Dave's Picks are close to that standard for me, where I would listen to them over and over. Like many others have mentioned, an Ark box would have me lining up to buy.

10/31/70 , 10/31/69, & 2/17/79

I would think next year would ( or should) focus on 1970 inclusive going backwards and 1990 inclusive going forwards.

Thinking ahead to what Dave might be eyeing for 2025, we know Vol 53 is 1976. Let's recap the last three years of Dave's. That's 12 volumes:

3 x 1977 (41, 45, 50)
2 x 1971 (48, 51)
1 ea 1972 (46) and 1974 (42) - both w/ bonus discs
4 x Brent (44, 47, 49, 52) - '90, '79, '85, and '83 respectively
'Filler' show across two volumes -- 1970 Kiel Opera House complete show

And let's mention the 2022-2024 box sets: 1978, 1973, and MSG '81-'83.

The observant among you will note that I've left out one release: Vol 43, which contained two 1969 shows. That issue marks only the 2nd time the Dave's series has visited 1969. And as Dave observed in the liner notes for #43, it was the first time they'd picked a Pigpen-era show since Vol 30, which was released in Spring 2019... 13 releases prior.

So if we just look at "what year hasn't Dave visited recently", and if we consider that Volume 54 is a bonus disc release, then 1973 stands out, as it's a great year with plenty of material still unreleased - and the last Dave's release from 1973 was Vol 38. But the HCS box is perhaps a strike against this particular year. And ofc, Dave keeps going back to the '71 well - and there's plenty there for a great release + a bonus disc. Same goes for Fall '72. And if any of those March '77 Winterland shows have flaws or a missing reel, it could be a prime candidate for this year's bonus disc, with a complete neighboring night as the main release (and history shows Dave favors '77.)

Back to 1969: with Vol 43 being the last time Dave hit '69, it does seem like 2025 could be the year to revisit. I think one challenge is that the shows typically aren't the "right" length for the 3-CD format. The bonus disc format could work really well here, though - two '69 shows over 4 discs could fit. 1968 is the ultimate wild card - what's in the vault, and can it be made to sound good enough for prime time? Maybe a '69 show takes 2 CDs and then the third CD gets whatever exists from a '68 show? I suspect these considerations are one reason why the Dave's series hasn't released that much primal Grateful Dead - trying to balance the CD format with the quality of the show(s) and the recordings, as well as what may or may not be in the vault - well, it's probably more straightforward to just keep autopiloting the '77 stuff.

HOWEVER -- if you start thinking about the Box for 2025, it's the 60th anniversary year. And no box sets have included any material from the 1960s since 30 Trips in 2015 - and before that, Fillmore West in 2005. A box with '68 AND '69 would be a fitting tribute. We're all agreed that we just want the music - it can be "Road Trips" style where complete shows aren't a prerequisite - and personally I think such a box would sell out faster than Here Comes Sunshine did. Add whatever is serviceable from September 1970 and people will cut off limbs to secure their copies. Dave, are ya listening, laddie?!? Will ye grant our fervent wishes? (And folks at Rhino, if a box like this were to happen, please bump the release count up to 12 or even 15K for the good of humanity - you KNOW this will sell out)

Well as the kids say today, holy essaying. Sorry for the wall. I should go to bed...

When was the last mini box, anyway? RFK in 2017? That was a late release - November 10 - I wonder if perhaps they wanted to juice holiday sales. But anyway, it's been quite interesting reading folks' ideas. For example, I saw the March '77 three-night stand suggested... there's some of the best '77 material to still be quietly moldering in the vault. The idea of a Vince-era mini box also seems logical - if you're in for Shoreline August '91, you're probably down with all three days, not just the 16th and its first-set Dark Star. The Hornsby-less Feb '91 Oakland stand is another fertile field.

And I'd second what JiminMD said, all of it. None of us are getting any younger. I have come around to viewing Dave's role (and Jeffrey Norman's) as one not just of opportunity and good fortune, but as one of blessed duty. For I, too, came to regard Grateful Dead music as church. How astonishing that Bear managed to record as much as he did. While we know the vault shelves for 1968 are akin to swiss cheese, that music is very special. I know many of us have filled our SSDs with whatever we need, but this music shouldn't be just for the acolytes: it needs to be heard widely, played loudly.

Shoulda
Beena
Twofer

How bout that China Cat, damn...